The big breakthrough on the tolls came in early 2008. It was then that the four Humber councils agreed to fund independent research. Consultants Colin Buchanan & Partners were appointed to carry out this research in the summer of 2008 after a competitive pitch.
The four councils agreed to pay £60,000 for a detailed 'social and economic impact assessment'. No financial help was provided from any other sources.
The main research findings were published in the House of Commons on 7 October 2008. The well attended launch was chaired by Brigg and Goole MP, Ian Cawsey.
The main findings were that there were two separate job markets operating on each bank, with little interaction between them. This is in stark contrast to what a City Region is meant to be about.
The consultants looked at two main options for their research:
- Scrapping the tolls and
- Reducing them to just £1 for a car, with similar reductions for all other classes of vehicle.
It was found that scrapping the tolls would boost the economic output of the City Region, north and south bank, by £1.1bn by 2032, and by £580m if a £1 car toll was levied.
The period to 2032 was chosen as the debt is expected to be repaid to the Government by this date.
More research
While the findings considerably strengthened the case, the four councils agreed that an extra bit of research was needed.
This was to look at how much the Treasury would get back if the Government scrapped the tolls or reduced them to a £1 for a car.
The Hull and Humber Chamber of Commerce agreed to fund this extra piece of research evidence.
The 9 January 2009 research showed that if the Government did nothing it could expect, at 2008 prices, to get back from the Humber Bridge Board income totaling £290m. But this would be at the price of holding back the economic prosperity of both banks of the Humber. It would also mean increasing the tolls in line with inflation for the 25 years or more, placing a major break on economic growth and jobs on both banks of the Humber.
But if the Government agreed to scrap the tolls or reduce them to £1 for a car, the net extra tax take to the Treasury would be £120m – this applies to both options.
The extra tax would come from the increased economic output and spending power in the City Region as a result of action on the tolls.
A major economic boost confirmed
The research shows that, if the tolls were abolished, the Hull and Humber Ports City Region would be boosted economically by £750m - at 2008 prices. A £1 car toll would give an economic boost of £375m.
The figures differ from the October 2008 research for two main reasons:
- The October figures were uprated for future inflation; and
- The timescales are slightly different. In the October 2008 report, 2032 was used, as by this date the debt is supposed to be repaid to the Government. In the January 2009 research, 2035 is used. The consultants believe this is more realistic.
The four councils agreed, based on the evidence available from both reports, to press the Treasury to abolish the tolls.
This decision was based on the research findings showing the cost to the Treasury is the same for both options, but that the economic benefits are greater for the City Region if the tolls are abolished.